Possible errors in Facebook ad targeting?

I've noticed wild fluctuations in my Facebook ad conversion rates, which is surprising since my ads are highly targeted for BrainiacDating.com. I only target about 10% of the singles on Facebook. The day to day conversion fluctuation can be 200%. It's very spiky and while I have not done any mathematical analysis, it seems like my impression volume, 500k per day should be high enough to smooth out the data.

I see some discussion in the FB developer forums of possible bugs, and am wondering if anyone else has seen this, and what magnitude?

FB forum: read more here.

Breakdown of Facebook Insights

Surprise, the city with the most fans of Brainiac Dating is Dublin, Ireland!
See the latest breakdown of the fan demographic from Facebook insights in the image below. The demographics are somewhat skewed by the relative efficiency of the advertising campaign we ran to get fans, because the actual BrainiacDating.com demographics are definitely more
biased towards US cities like New York, San Francisco and Los Angeles. We also have 60% male members and the age distribution is much less skewed towards to 18-24 year old end.


We could increase the number of Facebook "likes" - as it is now called, but my attention is instead focused on building a following on Twitter, and we just passed the 1000 follower mark without spending a dime. On the other hand, it cost a thousand dollars to get the 383 Facebook fans! You know where my attention is going...

Brainiac Dating Facebook Fan Page

Yippee, the Facebook fans page for BrainiacDating.com finally has 50 fans! Initially only a few of my friends had joined, and I could not get much momentum going especially since I am very careful who I call a friend. So in order to get the fan page going I created a Facebook ad campaign to direct Facebook members to the specific fan page, and viola they began coming in droves. The click through rate is 20% which is amazing and the cost per click is under $0.20 so this page should be able to grow fast.

Click here for the fans page.



There are only two problems with this fan page:
1) not everyone who becomes a fan also goes to brainiac dating and joins.
2) mostly men are becoming fans.

For the first problem, I have been able to customize the appearance of the page, and hopefully put some interesting links to keep the fans reading, and then occasionally remind them that there is a whole other site to check out.
For the second problem, I have been working on different ads for women, trying different keywords, images and bids.
Unfortunately the ads targeted to single women cost almost double than those directed at men, and the join rate is not
as high with women and men, but once women find out that the site is 62% men - hopefully the will be more eager to jump aboard.